Sunday, September 10, 2006

Terms of Trade (TOT) & Balance of Payments (BOP)

The terms of trade (TOT) measures the rate of exchange of one good or service for another when two countries trade with each other.

For international trade to be mutually beneficial for each country, the terms of trade must lie within the opportunity cost ratios for both country.

Balance of Payments (BOP)

The value of a country's exports and imports, and consequently the flows of money into and out of a country that are recorded in the balance of payments (BOP), is determined by the quantity of the good or service traded and their prices.

Changes in the relative prices of exports and imports are important factors in influencing the values of exports and imports and the balance of payments of a country. The terms of trade (TOT) is a measure of the relative prices of imports and exports.

The coefficient of income elasticity can be calculated by the following formula:

Terms of Trade index = (Index of Export Prices / Index of Import Prices) x 100

Improvement of TOT

If the terms of trade index number increases (DPx>DPm i.e. export prices are rising faster than import prices) it is described as a favourable movement (a unit of exports will buy more imports). In other words, fewer exports have to be given up in exchange for a given volume of imports.

Worsening of TOT

If the terms of trade index number decreases (DPx<DPm, i.e. import prices rise faster than export prices) it is described as a worsening or deterioration of the terms of trade (a unit of exports will buy fewer imports). In other words, a greater volume of exports has to be sold to finance a given amount of imported goods and services.

Movements of TOT & Impact on BOP

This terminology is somewhat ambiguous as it is important to bear in mind that a favourable or worsening of a countries TOT does not necessarily mean that anything is better or worse in term of the balance of payments situation. Both the price and the quantity of goods traded must be taken into account when considering the balance of payments situation.

An increase or favourable change in the TOT index caused by an increase in the price of exports may bring about a proportionately greater fall in the demand for exports leading to a worsening of the balance of payments situation. Conversely, a worsening of the terms of trade index caused by a fall in export prices may lead to a proportionately greater increase in the demand for exports and an improvement in the balance of payments.

It is important to consider how responsive the quantity demanded is to changes in the price of exports and imports. The price elasticity of demand of exports and imports is thus crucial.

Oil Prices and the TOT

Some developing countries are heavily dependent on exporting oil (which is generally a price inelastic commodity). Volatility in international commodity markets create serious problems with these countries’ terms of trade. In the chart below, notice how closely the annual % change in the terms of trade follows the movement in oil export prices.

Photobucket - Video and Image Hosting

When oil values collapsed in 1998, these developing countries faced the enormous problem of having to export much more oil to pay for a given volume of imports. The worsening in the terms of trade will have adversely affected living standards in these countries. There has been a sharp rebound in global oil prices this year, helping to boost the terms of trade for oil exporters.

Terms of Trade for Developing Countries

Developing countries which are dependent on the export of commodities and agricultural produce can be caught in a trap where average price levels for their main exports decline in the long run. This depressed the real value of their exports and worsens the terms of trade. A greater volume of exports have to be given up to finance essential imports of raw materials, components and fixed capital goods.

(see REPORT on how TOT have moved for countries in the world over the past decade)

The problems intensified in 1998 with the collapse in the currencies of many Asian developing countries. A big fall in the terms of trade signifies a reduction in real living standards since imports of goods and services have become relatively more expensive.

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